This is the first installment in a four-part series profiling the four candidates seeking the GOP nomination for governor of South Dakota.
SIOUX FALLS, S.D. – Businessman Toby Doeden said his decision to run for governor of South Dakota wasn't solidified in conversations with family and friends in his hometown of Aberdeen but rather in events that unfolded on a fateful afternoon in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July 2024.
"The second Trump stood up and was yelling 'fight, fight, fight', I knew in that moment God was sending me a message," Doeden said, referring to the attempted assassination of then-candidate Donald Trump, which marked a seminal moment in his successful bid to reclaim the White House in the 2024 presidential election.
Doeden said the incident sparked his belief South Dakota needed someone like President Trump, a businessman with little to no experience dealing with the typical horse trading that goes on in the political arena, to fix the ills plaguing the Mount Rushmore State.
"We needed a bold outsider to step up," Doeden said.
He believes he is that outsider.
Alexander Rifaat
News Watch met with Doeden last week in downtown Sioux Falls, where, in addition to being flanked by a handful of campaign staffers, he was joined by his wife of 30 years, Elizabeth.
Just a few hours earlier, Doeden received a major boost when a KELO-TV/Emerson College poll came out that found him leading the GOP gubernatorial primary race at 26%.
Doeden, however, appeared cerebral when asked what he thought of the latest figures.
"I looked at the poll for about three seconds this morning and went right back to work," he said. Doeden said his own internal polling had shown rising support, but he didn't want to publicize it for fear of accusations of "doctoring the numbers."
Doeden said a major factor behind the uptick is the growing number of negative political ads centered on his three opponents: Gov. Larry Rhoden, U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson and state House Speaker Jon Hansen.
"It feels different the last couple of months. I wasn't able to put my finger on it. Then we started going to events and when I would shake everybody's hands afterwards they would tell me: 'We weren't going to vote for you, but now we are because we are sick and tired of the three politicians battling it out over the airwaves. We can't even enjoy television anymore,'" Doeden said.
Get South Dakota news and information in a free email on weekdays. Cancel any time.
Doeden, while critical of his primary opponents, said his campaign strategy has sought to avoid relying on attack ads and has remained focused on bread-and-butter issues such as the cost of living, crime and education.
His belief in this approach has been underscored by the amount of his own money he has already put into his campaign. According the latest financial figures, Doeden has loaned his campaign a total of $4 million since he entered the contest last year.
"We're going to win this race. One-hundred percent," Doeden said.
The boy from Groton
Doeden's status as a multimillionaire businessman is a far cry from his upbringing in Groton, 20 miles east of Aberdeen.
He owns a number of ventures, including rental property, car dealerships and a casino. While Doeden is keen to talk up his business acumen, little is actually known as to the extent of his wealth.
In a gubernatorial debate in Sioux Falls last month, Doeden snapped at a moderator who pointed out that while Doeden had voiced his opposition to government-led economic development programs, he benefitted from pandemic-era paycheck protection program loans.
"I don't appreciate you saying that I used it to further my business interests. That's a flat-out lie," Doeden said.
He said took out one PPP loan for one of the dozen companies he owns and defended other businesses that used such loans during the pandemic that were intended to help small businesses by funding up to eight weeks of their payroll costs.
"Where would our state economy be today if we hadn't fought to keep our companies open? I'm proud of that one loan," Doeden said.
The youngest of four children, Doeden said his childhood was largely shaped by seeing his mother, Arlis, work multiple jobs to provide for their family after his father, Doug, was permanently disabled. He died in 2020 and she died in 2021.
"You want to find a role model in life? Find someone that is willing to work seven days a week for 20 straight years and never complain," Doeden said. "She was old school: You do whatever you got to do to provide for your kids."
While his father was a self-styled "JFK Democrat," Doeden said his formative years were shaped by his mom's admiration for President Ronald Reagan.
"For the very few moments I got with her when she wasn't at work or asleep, she would talk about how much she loved Reagan," Doeden said.
Doeden lived in Groton for most of his life until eight years ago, when he moved to Aberdeen after all four of his children graduated from Groton High School.
Affordability, fiscal discipline top of mind
It is perhaps the experience of growing up under strained financial circumstances that leads Doeden to bring up the issues of affordability and the need for greater fiscal discipline at the state level.
When it comes to cost of living concerns in South Dakota, Doeden pins the blame not just on former President Joe Biden and what he said were inflationary policies introduced during the pandemic but also on runaway spending in Pierre that, due to a subsequent rise in taxes, has dampened economic activity.
"Taxes were increasing at breakneck speeds, yet our revenue remained flat. That's a big, big red flag for somebody who has been in the business world," Doeden said.
While Doeden said the state budget had doubled in seven years from 2017 to 2024, the figure is closer to 61 percent, according to the Urban Institute.
Doeden also appears to run into a math problem when it comes to his plan to eliminate property taxes as a way to provide relief to South Dakotans.
Enacting such a measure would lead to an estimated $1.8 billion hole in the state budget, which could deprive the state funding for some of Doeden's other promises, such as raising teacher pay.
The Trump factor
For all the ways Doeden has sought to tie his own brand of populist conservatism with Trump, that still hasn't translated into a coveted endorsement from the president, which he played down.
"President Trump has been a little busy. He has ended countless wars. He shut down our Southern border. He's collecting billions of dollars in tariffs to help fund our federal government. I doubt there are too many days he is scrolling Facebook looking at Toby Doeden videos," Doeden said. "I suspect Team Trump is pulling for Toby, whether it's publicly or behind the scenes."
Doeden said that, while the other three candidates only demonstrated lukewarm support for Trump on the debate stage, he had no qualms about pledging his loyalty.
"I looked at the camera and I said, 'I love Donald Trump,'" Doeden said.
Partner with South Dakota News Watch and support fact-based news and information.
He added that the president needed a strong "Midwest ally" to ensure South Dakota didn't turn into states such as Minnesota and Colorado that have become solidly Democratic in recent years.
Perhaps Doeden's most Trump-esque moment of the interview came when he was pressed on his support for the administration's tariff policy, which was seen as negatively impacting U.S. agriculture.
A poll last month commissioned by News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy found a majority of respondents in South Dakota agreed with the Supreme Court's ruling to strike down the tariffs.
"If they can't at least say the words out loud, 'Thank you Donald Trump for saving our country from Kamala Harris,' I have nothing in common with that person."
-- South Dakota gubernatorial candidate Toby Doeden on his support for President Trump
"I think the people that respond to polls like that, many of them are liberals and they would say 'Donald Trump is terrible' even if he handed them a million dollars in cash. There's nothing to please them," Doeden said.
While Doeden appeared to agree that civility in politics was important, he said detractors of Trump's style, especially within the Republican party, should remember the wider context of the 2024 presidential vote.
"If they can't at least say the words out loud 'Thank you Donald Trump for saving our country from Kamala Harris,' I have nothing in common with that person."
If Doeden, Hansen, Johnson or Rhoden doesn't receive 35% of the vote in the June 2 Republican primary, a runoff election between the two top vote-getters will be held July 28. The winner of that contest will meet Democrat Dan Ahlers in the Nov. 3 general election.
South Dakota News Watch is an independent nonprofit. Read, donate and subscribe for free at sdnewswatch.org. Contact politics and statehouse reporter Alexander Rifaat: 605-736-4396/alexander.rifaat@sdnewswatch.org.
