Republican Marty Jackley is South Dakota's attorney general. Democrat Nicki Gronli was formerly the state's director for the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development program.
Republican Attorney General Marty Jackley leads Democrat Nikki Gronli 60% to 32%, according to the latest South Dakota Poll sponsored by News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota.
The Oct. 12-14 survey of 500 likely voters by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, ranked as one of the least-biased and most-factual pollsters, also found that 44% of independents support Gronli, while 45% support Jackley and 10% of independents are undecided.
Jackley has served as attorney general since 2023 and previously served from 2009 to 2019. He was South Dakota's U.S. attorney from 2006-2009. The poll results were consistent with Jackley's internal polling, though he doesn't focus much on poll results, he said.
"The poll that means the most to me is on Election Day, when South Dakotans are going to choose their next voice in Congress," Jackley said. "I feel having been both U.S. attorney and attorney general has helped my favorable name recognition, because South Dakotans have seen me work hard for them and fight for them."
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South Dakota has one congressional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Representatives are elected for a two-year term. The general election is Nov. 3.
Other findings from the U.S. House poll:
- More than half of respondents did not recognize Gronli's name.
- One-third of Democrats have a favorable view of Jackley.
- Jackley and Gronli were tied in support from 18-34 year-olds at 45%.
Gronli and Jackley by the numbers
Analysis
Here are some observations:
Takeaway: Gronli's name recognition major concern
The latest South Dakota Poll found that 61% of likely voters did not recognize Gronli's name – a fact that political scientists said could cost her in November.
Jon Schaff, professor of government and director of the Center for Public History and Civic Engagement at Northern State University in Aberdeen, said that Gronli's lack of name recognition compared to other non-incumbent challengers is likely due to her not holding political office.
"If you don't recognize the person's name, the nice thing about elections is you don't have to come up with it off the top of your head. It's right there on the ballot. And if you're not at the recognition level, you've got a problem," Schaff said. "Obviously both (U.S Senate candidate Brian) Bengs and (governor candidate Dan) Ahlers have run for statewide office before, so they have better name recognition than Gronli. But still, it's hard to win an election when a third of the electorate doesn't know who you are."
Gronli told News Watch that she had started running television and radio ads and expected recognition to increase as those air. She also said that her higher recognition numbers in the northeast region of the state – 22.7% polled recognized and had a favorable opinion of her – was due to "active outreach" from voters in that area.
"There's a lot of the media that is just now getting out there, so I do realize that that's different. Obviously, I haven't held an office," Gronli said. "That northeast corner, there's just been very active outreach there from people to us. We've been invited to so many things in Milbank and Britton and even in Aberdeen and Watertown. So that is kind of interesting, and they've been a really great and helpful bunch up there."
Gronli said that she would be spending the majority of the next two weeks campaigning in the Sioux Falls metro area – her hometown and a part of the state Democrats generally fare better.
Takeaway: Independents divided
In News Watch's polling for the 2026 gubernatorial election, independent voters favored Ahlers over Republican Gov. Larry Rhoden 51% to 35%, with the rest undecided. The same group of independents effectively split their support between Jackley (45%) and Gronli (44%).
Schaff said that nationally, independents tend to vote along one party line or another, regardless of their actual formal affiliation.
"When you look at actual voting behavior, the vast majority of independents, their voting behavior is quite partisan. Most people who say 'I'm an independent' are consistently voting either Republican or Democrat. The percentage of the national population that is pure independents, as we call them, is something in the single digits," Schaff said.
Julia Hellwege, associate professor in the political science department at the University of South Dakota in Vermillion, said that the House results, compared with governor and other poll results, could be indicative of South Dakota independents choosing a more "pure independent" path this November, in contrast to national trends.
"We now have at least a couple of instances where independents are more true moderates again. At the last election two years ago, we saw independents truly being quite aligned with Republicans, which is partly why Republicans won," Hellwege. "But increasingly and sustainably, we are seeing independents be more true moderates. I have some cases where I'm seeing that independents are distinct from either of the parties."
Our polling methods
Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, ranked as one of the least-biased and most-factual pollsters, conducted the poll of 500 registered voters Oct. 12-14 using random selections from a telephone-matched state voter registration list that included both landline and cellphone numbers from across the state. All respondents indicated they were likely to vote in the November general election. The margin for error is no more than ± 4.5 percentage points.
For bios on the candidates and other information about the race, see our South Dakota voter guide at the link below as well as other results of the poll.
Molly Wetsch
Molly Wetsch
South Dakota News Watch is an independent nonprofit. Read, subscribe for free and donate at sdnewswatch.org. Contact reporter/Report for America corps member Molly Wetsch: 605-531-7382/ molly.wetsch@sdnewswatch.org. Contact reporter Emily DeCock: 605-736-4396/ emily.decock@sdnewswatch.org.
