Editor's note: This story was updated on Oct. 27 at 8:17 a.m. Central Time to state that South Dakota places term limits on House members, and Rep. Jon Hansen’s final term ends next year.
PIERRE, S.D. – U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson and Gov. Larry Rhoden are effectively tied atop the race for the Republican nomination for governor, while Toby Doeden and Rep. Jon Hansen have surged in popularity over the past six months, according to a scientific poll of registered GOP voters co-sponsored by South Dakota News Watch.
Of those voters surveyed, 28% would support Johnson and 27% would vote for Rhoden. The margin of error was no more than 4.5 percentage points, meaning they are statistically tied. Rhoden has not officially announced his bid for governor, but he is anticipated to seek the Republican nomination. Fundraising letters have also asked for donations to support a "competitive campaign," The Dakota Scout reported.
The statewide survey, co-sponsored by the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota, showed Doeden, an Aberdeen businessman, taking 15% of the vote. Hansen, speaker of the South Dakota House, was the choice for 10% of those polled. About 21% were undecided.
"I think that there's a race that's going to happen. That's the big picture," said Julia Hellwege, director of the Chiesman Center and USD associate professor in political science.
Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy conducted the poll of 502 registered Republican voters Oct. 16-20 using random selections from a telephone-matched state voter registration list that included both landline and cellphone numbers from across the state.
- Doeden has never run for office. He bought Aberdeen Chrysler in 2020 after working there for 23 years. He also owns a Ford dealership in Redfield as well as rental properties and retail establishments.
- Hansen served in the state House from 2011 to 2013 before resigning to attend law school. The Dell Rapids lawyer was again elected to the House in 2019 and rose to speaker this year. South Dakota limits House members to four consecutive terms, and Hansen's term ends next year.
- Johnson was elected to South Dakota’s at-large congressional district in 2018. Prior to that, the Pierre native served on the Public Utilities Commission from 2004 to 2011 and was chief of staff to Gov. Dennis Daugaard. Upon announcing his intention to run for governor, he also announced he isn’t running for reelection to the U.S. House.
- Rhoden became governor in January when former Gov. Kristi Noem was appointed to lead the Department of Homeland Security. The Union Center rancher was elected to lieutenant governor in 2018 and 2022. A Morning Consult poll in October found 57% of those surveyed approved of his job performance, with 22% undecided.
Takeaways from analysts
Here are some observations from News Watch partners as the campaign for the June 2 primary heats up.
Changes since April
The poll shows that there are clearly two front-runners in the four-way race with Johnson and Rhoden, but Doeden and Hansen have gained support. An April poll by News Watch and Chiesman showed 4% of Republican voters would vote for Doeden and 2% for Hansen. Johnson polled at 28% and Rhoden 27% at the time, the same level of support as this month's poll. Undecided voters fell 1 percentage point.
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Since then, Attorney General Marty Jackley, who polled at 18% in April, dropped out of the governor’s race to run for U.S. House. Doeden announced his campaign in May and has since spent heavily on television and social media ads.
If none of the candidates receives 35% of the vote, a runoff election between the two top vote-getters will be held eight weeks after the primary election.
Moving to the right
Doeden has been running a populist campaign, presenting himself as a “political disruptor” of the establishment, Hellwege said. Meanwhile, Rhoden and Johnson present as moderate Republicans, she said.
The Hansen and Doeden campaigns are likely pulling more away from Rhoden than from Johnson, Hellwege said.
With Doeden gaining ground as a candidate, the Rhoden and Johnson campaigns might move further to the right to capture voters Doeden is pulling away, she said.
Successful template
Brad Coker, founder of Mason-Dixon Strategy and Polling, which conducted the poll, said similar campaigns following Doeden’s outsider strategy have proved successful — namely President Donald Trump and former North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who now serves as Trump's secretary of Interior.
“That template has worked,” Coker said.
As the sitting governor, Rhoden has a lot of influence, including the ability to veto bills. “People might be hedging their bets a little bit,” Coker said.
Johnson has been in Washington since first being elected to the House in 2018, and Congress doesn’t have a great overall rating, which might influence some of the voter preferences, he said.
“When Washington is dysfunctional and politicians don’t seem to be getting the job done, a guy with a business background starts to get an appeal,” Coker said of Doeden.
Seven months to go until primary
Conventional wisdom suggests that Johnson would normally be the front-runner, and while he is leading, it’s neck-and-neck with Rhoden, Coker said.
Doeden still has seven months before the June 2 primary to make further progress. How far he can go depends on the ability of the other campaigns to counter his messaging, said Michael Card, emeritus professor of political science at USD. Rhoden will have his influence as governor, and Johnson can take actions in Congress to show he’s working for South Dakota.
“Those are defensive strategies that those two candidates might consider, which would really make Doeden work hard. He's going to have to work hard,” Card said.
Voter differences
With 21% still undecided, those voters will be moving toward one of the candidates in the coming months.
The poll showed that Hansen has pull among women Republicans when compared to Doeden and Johnson but not compared to Rhoden or undecided voters.
The candidates' appeal to voters shows the most divergence among geographical groups. Doeden polls weaker in all areas except the northern part of East River, which includes his hometown of Aberdeen.
Hansen is coming in stronger in the southern part of East River, where he lives. While East River polls more moderate among all voters, a GOP-only poll shows Republican voters in the southeast part of the state are quite conservative, Hellwege said.
The race will be shaped by whether Hansen and Doeden stay in the race, she said. As a "disruption" candidate, Doeden will likely stay in to make a statement regardless of polling, but Hansen is running a different campaign.
"I'd be curious to see if he (Hansen) stays in the race and then (it) becomes more of a three-way (race). And then that would be interesting to see what could happen," Hellwege said.
This story was produced by South Dakota News Watch, an independent, nonprofit organization. Read more stories and donate at sdnewswatch.org and sign up for an email to get stories when they're published. Contact statehouse investigative reporter Kevin Killough at kevin.killough@sdnewswatch.org.
