PIERRE, S.D. – If the 2026 primary election for U.S. House were held today, most South Dakota Republicans would support Attorney General Marty Jackley, according to a scientific poll of registered GOP voters co-sponsored by South Dakota News Watch.
The statewide survey, co-sponsored by the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota, showed Jackley with 57%. State Sen. Casey Crabtree was the preferred candidate with 5%, followed by Piedmont businessman James Bialota, who was the preferred candidate for 2% of those surveyed.
The poll also found that 36% of GOP voters haven't decided who they would vote for in the June 2 primary.
Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy conducted the poll of 502 registered Republican voters Oct. 16-20 using random selections from a telephone-matched state voter registration list that included both landline and cellphone numbers from across the state.
- Bialota is a small-business owner, dealing in military surplus, sporting goods and precious metals. The Piedmont resident is a disabled combat veteran who served in the Air Force and is the former director of the West Dakota Water Development District.
- Crabtree was appointed to the South Dakota Senate by former Gov. Kristi Noem in 2020 and was reelected in 2020, 2022 and 2024. He lives in Madison, where he is economic development director for Heartland Energy, a public power utility.
- Jackley serves as South Dakota’s attorney general. He was U.S. attorney for South Dakota from 2006 to 2009 and previously served as state attorney general from 2009 to 2019 when term limits kept him from running again. He ran unsuccessfully for governor against Noem in 2018. In 2022, he ran for attorney general unopposed.
Takeaways from analysts:
Here are some observations from News Watch partners as the campaign for the June 2 primary heats up.
Jackley fares better in House
Upon announcing his campaign for governor, Rep. Dusty Johnson, South Dakota’s at-large representative, said he wouldn't run for reelection to the U.S. House.
Jackley was exploring a run for governor but later announced a run for U.S. House. He came in third behind Gov. Larry Rhoden and Johnson for governor in an April poll by News Watch and Chiesman.
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Brad Coker, founder of Mason-Dixon Strategy and Polling, said Jackley made a wise choice to opt to run for Congress over governor.
“That was a crowded field,” Coker said of the governor’s race, which has four candidates.
Unless someone well-positioned jumps into the race — and Coker said there’s no one that fits that description who's likely to enter — it’s “clear sailing” for Jackley.
One-third undecided
Looking at the 36% who said they’re not sure who they’ll vote for in the race, Julia Hellwege, director of the Chiesman Center and USD associate professor in political science, said it’s unclear if they aren’t decided or don’t know the candidates.
“I guess if there’s any story in the House race at all, it's going to be, are undecided voters truly undecided, or is it just a lower-information race?” Hellwege said.
Coker said that for an open seat in a congressional race — meaning no widely recognized incumbent — and the primary seven months away, it’s not unusual to see a large portion of respondents having no preference.
The poll results, even factoring in the one-third who will be putting their support behind a candidate in the coming months, don’t open up much room for Crabtree to catch up to Jackley, Coker said.
“There's nothing that I see anywhere in this poll that says that's just a whole bunch of Crabtree voters waiting to jump on the train,” he said.
Jackley’s Washington connections
Starting around 2022, Jackley was an adviser on an unofficial council of state attorneys general for President Donald Trump on a range of issues related to the rule of law, South Dakota Searchlight reported in November 2024.
After Matt Gaetz withdrew his name from consideration for the nomination of U.S. attorney general after allegations of drug use and payments for sex, Jackley was a vocal supporter for Attorney General Pam Bondi.
With Jackley showing 57% support in the latest poll, he’s likely to see increased financial support for his campaign, Coker said.
“I think people will get out their checkbooks ... and not just in South Dakota, either. He's going to get a lot of checks from people waiting for him in Washington. So he's in a good spot to put this thing away, even if somebody of some credibility comes in,” Coker said.
Crabtree and carbon pipelines
Noem appointed Crabtree to the South Dakota Senate in 2020, and he was selected to serve as majority leader in 2023. He was a prime sponsor of Senate Bill 201, which would have created landowner protections from the construction of carbon-capture pipelines and other linear transmission facilities.
The bill would not have prevented the use of eminent domain, which forces landowners to sell their land for “fair market value” regardless of whether they approve of the transaction. Opponents of the measure referred the bill to the ballot, which voters rejected in the 2024 general election.
The bill played a role in 11 out of 14 incumbent Republicans losing their seats in the June 2024 primary, South Dakota Searchlight reported, and Crabtree lost his position as majority leader in January.
Bialota stands his ground
Bialota might have trouble gaining name recognition in the race with little experience in office outside the West Dakota Water Development District.
He owns Dead on Surplus in Rapid City, which sells military surplus, precious metals and sporting goods.
"It's all the fun stuff," he said.
He has had a number of run-ins with the law over the past few years. In 2021, he was arrested for simple assault and received a 90-day suspended sentence and a $346 fine. Bialota claimed self-defense under the state’s “stand your ground” law, Searchlight reported.
Most recently, he was arrested for refusal to leave after notice earlier this month. That case is pending in Pennington County Magistrate Court. Bialota said he was campaigning on a public sidewalk and wasn't trespassing.
He said he's being targeted for political reasons.
“They’re just trying to throw everything at me under the sun for no valid reason,” he said.
Correction: This story was corrected at 7:36 a.m. on Oct. 29, 2025, to correct that Jackley explored a run for governor but never formally announced.
Kevin Killough
This story was produced by South Dakota News Watch, an independent, nonprofit organization. Read more stories and donate at sdnewswatch.org and sign up for an email to get stories when they're published. Contact statehouse investigative reporter Kevin Killough at kevin.killough@sdnewswatch.org.
